Thrive Capital is committing over $1 billion to OpenAI’s ongoing $6.5 billion fundraising round, with an exclusive deal allowing them to invest another $1 billion at the same valuation next year if the AI company reaches a specific revenue target, sources familiar with the matter disclosed on Friday. This unique opportunity is not available to other investors in the round, including Microsoft and Khosla Ventures.
OpenAI, known for its flagship product ChatGPT, is forecasting a dramatic revenue increase from an estimated $3.7 billion in 2024 to $11.6 billion in 2025. However, the company is also expecting losses as high as $5 billion this year, largely due to significant spending on computing power, according to one source.
The current funding round is structured as convertible debt and could value OpenAI at approximately $150 billion. This valuation, if achieved, would solidify OpenAI as one of the world’s most valuable private companies. The success of the valuation hinges on a complex restructuring plan that would remove control from OpenAI’s non-profit board and eliminate the cap on investor returns.
Thrive Capital, led by Joshua Kushner, is offering $1.2 billion for the investment—comprising funds from its own capital and a special purpose vehicle for smaller investors. Thrive, which led OpenAI’s previous funding round, stands to benefit significantly if OpenAI continues to grow, as the option to invest next year at a discounted price could increase its stake substantially.
OpenAI’s revenue expectations, primarily driven by its corporate services and chatbot subscriptions, far exceed the earlier projection of $1 billion in revenue for 2023. ChatGPT alone is expected to generate $2.7 billion this year, up from $700 million in 2023, with approximately 10 million paying users.
Both Thrive Capital and OpenAI declined to comment on the details of the investment and future projections. The funding round is expected to close by the end of next week.
