Antarctica’s sea ice has plummeted to a record low for the second consecutive year, marking a significant shift in the southern polar region’s climate dynamics. According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, which monitors polar ice levels, the ice’s maximum extent in 2024 reached just 17.2 million square kilometres. This is the second-lowest figure ever recorded in a satellite record that dates back 46 years.
The September peak was a staggering 1.6 million square kilometres below the average maximum for the Antarctic winter, a reduction equivalent to nearly three times the size of mainland France. As the southern hemisphere transitions into summer, the sea ice is expected to shrink further.
Growing Worries for Antarctica’s Future
The declining sea ice has raised alarm among scientists about the future of Antarctica and its role in regulating global climate and sea levels. Sea ice plays a critical function by reflecting sunlight, helping to keep temperatures in check. However, with reduced ice coverage, the oceans absorb more heat, which can accelerate global warming.
“The Antarctic appears to be entering into ambient disorder,” warned Gerhard Krinner, a prominent French climate scientist and former author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is particularly worrying, as Antarctica had been the only major glacial region that had remained stable for a century, despite the climate challenges facing the rest of the world.
While the Arctic has warmed six times faster than other regions globally, Antarctica’s unique geography has so far shielded it from rapid temperature increases. The continent is surrounded by the vast Southern Ocean, which spreads heat over a greater depth, making it more resistant to immediate climate impacts.
However, Krinner noted that recent signs of instability, including rapid ice loss and unpredictable weather patterns, indicate a shift. “We’ve known for a long time that Antarctica would take longer to warm up,” he told RFI, adding that the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, and ice are becoming more complex and less predictable.
Possible Long-term Effects
Experts warn that prolonged ice loss could have serious consequences. Louise Sime of the British Antarctic Survey said that if Antarctic sea ice remains at low levels for more than 20 years, the impacts could be profound. These effects would extend to global weather patterns and the delicate ecosystems of the Southern Ocean, including species like whales and penguins.
Still, Sime and other scientists caution that it is too early to make definitive predictions about Antarctica’s future. More concrete data is expected to emerge by the end of the decade, which could provide better insights into the long-term trends.
Greening of the Antarctic Peninsula
As the frozen landscape of Antarctica warms, an unexpected ecological transformation is taking place. In regions that were once barren, plant life is beginning to thrive. A recent study revealed that mosses and lichens, which previously struggled to survive, are now spreading rapidly, particularly along the Antarctic Peninsula.
This area, which extends toward South America, has become a focal point for observing climate change’s effects. Using a combination of satellite imagery and on-the-ground observations, British researchers found that moss and lichen coverage has expanded by 30 percent over the last 50 years.
The study highlights a significant ecological shift in one of Earth’s most extreme environments. “This trend echoes a wider pattern of greening in cold-climate ecosystems in response to recent warming, suggesting future widespread changes in the Antarctic Peninsula’s terrestrial ecosystems,” the researchers concluded.
Although Antarctica remains largely defined by ice, snow, and rock, these changing conditions pose a threat to the delicate balance of its ecosystems, which have evolved over millions of years to survive in the extreme cold. Scientists are now keeping a close eye on how these changes will impact the continent’s future.
