The Padres added a veteran presence to their lineup and so far, it looks like it was a great move. Reportedly, the team has agreed on a two-year contract that guarantees $12 million with veteran infielder/outfielder Matt Carpenter. He is represented by SSG Baseball, but he can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season if he declines a player option in 2024. The deal pays him $3 million up-front and guarantees either 500 plate appearances or 350 plate appearances in both years of the contract, whichever he chooses. He also has reportedly earned $500K bonuses if he hits any one of 300, 350, 400 450 or 500 plate appearances in both seasons as well
Over the past season, Carpenter, who turned 37 last month, enjoyed one of the most remarkable rebound campaigns in recent memory. Carpenter, a three-time All-Star with the Cardinals, appeared to be on the decline when he hit .176/.313/.291 in 418 plate appearances with the Cardinals from 2020-21.
As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic detailed last offseason, Carpenter reinvented himself by taking a data-driven approach to hitting and enlisting feedback from Joey Votto, Matt Holliday, and a private hitting coach as he changed his swing and approach to the plate. A minor league contract was signed by the Rangers as a result of their interest.
We often hear stories of veterans who have to make professional changes late in their careers, but rarely do they have the level of success that Carpenter has attained. After hitting .275/.379/.613 in 21 games with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, Carpenter was released by Texas (oops) and signed a Major League deal with the Yankees, for whom he posted a comical slash line of .305/.412/.727. In just 154 plate appearances, Carpenter hit 15 home runs while still managing to maintain a respectable batting average of .253/.333/.506 on the road.
Andrew Carpenters stellar performance in 2022 was impressive. He led all of baseball in slugging percentage, isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and wRC+, ranked second to only Aaron Judge in terms of on-base percentage, and had the 12th-best batting average of any player in the game. In addition, Carpenter’s rate of ‘barreled’ balls (as defined by Statcast) was high, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both exceed league average. It’s tough to expect these numbers to be sustained for an extended period of time, but he has shown that he is again a viable big league slugger.
Carpenter suffered a fractured foot after a ball struck his foot in early August, which ended his regular season prematurely. In the ALDS and ALCS, Carpenter went just 1-for-12 with nine strikeouts, which is alarming for both the Yankees and the team. Carpenter’s rustiness was predictable when he returned to the Yankees’ playoff roster.
Despite playing both corner infields and both corner outfields in 2022, Carpenter becomes a favorite for DH work with the Padres. Despite his unsightly defensive metrics on his limited time at second base in 2021, he is capable of serving as an emergency option there. He’s also logged more than 1900 innings there in his career.
The agreement with Carpenter will push the Padres to more than $246MM in actual cash payroll for the 2023 season and bumps their luxury tax ledger to nearly $267MM, as projected by Roster Resource. The Padres are already well into the second tier of penalization and, given that they’re entering their third consecutive year over the luxury line, are being taxed at a 62% rate on every dollar in the second bracket ($253MM to $273MM). As such, Carpenter will cost them an additional $3.72MM in taxes for the 2023 campaign.
