Political scientist Jibrin Ibrahim says his fifty years studying politics cannot explain what has happened to Nigerian electoral democracy. After 27 years and seven governments in the Fourth Republic, the political process has been completely transformed, he argues. What he means is clearer in the detail: it has been largely destroyed.
Ibrahim, who has spent decades examining how politics works, finds himself unable to make sense of the current state of affairs. The systems and norms that once governed elections and political competition have eroded so badly that conventional political science offers little help in understanding what happens anymore.
The changes have been dramatic and deeply troubling. Opposition party leaders face regular challenges that go beyond normal political competition. The rules of the game have shifted so fundamentally that the basic structures of democracy—fair contests, peaceful transfers of power, respect for opposition voices—no longer function as they once did.
His concern reflects a broader worry among scholars and observers of Nigerian politics. The Fourth Republic began with promise in 1999, marked by the return to civilian rule after decades of military dictatorship. That transition created hope that Nigeria would build lasting democratic institutions. Instead, what emerged was a political system that hollowed out from within.
What makes Ibrahim's assessment particularly striking is that it comes from someone with the credentials to know. His work has long focused on understanding African politics, democratisation, and the challenges faced by young democracies. When someone of his standing says the system has been destroyed rather than merely weakened, it signals a fundamental crisis.
The question now becomes what happens next. Without faith in the electoral process, without belief that the rules will be followed fairly, democracy loses its legitimacy. Nigerians must confront whether the Fourth Republic can be repaired or whether something entirely different is needed.
